13th June 2024

Let’s see if I can discover one thing to counter and/or undercut every of those 10 objects listed on this morning’s tweet above: 

thread#showTweet” data-screenname=”ritholtz” data-tweet=”1659548089076572164″>1. Solely 5 shares driving markets?!
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Then why are Equal-weighted indices doing so properly?

2. Recession is inevitable?

If you happen to interpret that actually, then sure, in the future there shall be a recession. However individuals have been forecasting an imminent recession for 18 months — and we nonetheless have but to have one.

This tweet by Steve Rattner — who I think about a better-than-average, rational market analyst — was precisely a yr in the past at this time:

3. Breadth is horrible

There are numerous methods to depict how broad market participation is, however the easiest is the ADVANCE/DECLINE line. It measures what number of shares are going up versus down.

Listed below are the NDX & SPX (Redlines at backside). Each appear to be doing high qualityImage

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4. AI is a bubble!

The highest Three AI firms?

Microsoft $MSFT PE is 33, about its 10-year avg
$GOOG PE 27, under its 10-year avg
And Fb? $META is making a gift of their AI, making it open-source.

None of that sounds bubblicious…

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5. Debt ceiling = catastrophe

I like Jim Bianco’s feedback that the media appears to suppose it’s a 50/50 proposition, however the implied likelihood of default in keeping with market costs is 3%.

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6. New lows are problematic

thread#showTweet” data-screenname=”ritholtz” data-tweet=”1659575479051993088″>(I heard this earlier within the week)NYSE – Excessive Low Ratio for the previous Three yearsImageImage
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6. Customers are working out of cash (until we have a look at their spending)

Private Consumption Expenditures ( (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Fee)Image

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7. Earnings will fail THIS Q

Earnings forecasts are hilariously unsuitable more often than not, as are income forecasts…Image

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8. HH Debt!

American family debt could also be at document highs, however so too are Property and Incomes + the ratio between debt + revenue is close to document lows.

It’s not the overall debt however fairly the power to service these money owed that issues most…Image

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As I hold saying, in the future, this cycle will finish, a recession to worse will happen, and the secular bull market that started in 2013 will finish. That day is just not right here but…

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