23rd June 2024

How little do we all know in regards to the future? An effective way to determine that out is to look to our previous, to see what we beforehand considered what the longer term will maintain.

To wit: 26 years in the past, the picture above got here from the quilt story of Fortune journal:

“There’s a variety of buzz within the smartphone enterprise currently, with Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone turning the cellular world the wrong way up and Nokia’s (NOK) upcoming cellphone announcement offering a brand new problem. Regardless of all of the hype, although, Analysis in Movement’s (RIMM) BlackBerry remains to be essentially the most formidable drive in U.S. smartphones.

This assertion, after all, is gadget heresy. In style opinion holds that the iPhone is in the present day’s must-have machine, and not one of the others stand an opportunity. However whereas the iPhone is revolutionary, it’s not but positioned to really problem RIM’s foothold within the smartphone market.”

Essentially the most (WTF?) formidable drive in smartphones? How did that work out for Blackberry?

Not that properly:

Satirically, even 2 years later in 2009, Fortune was nonetheless on the fence, seemingly rooting for RIMM whereas lacking an enormous disruptive change already going down. This cowl reveals the how they noticed this debate:

The media’s tendency to deal with all the pieces like a horserace, be it in know-how, investing, or politics, is greater than only a poor assemble — it’s a lazy option to cowl something. It lacks perception; it oversimplifies, and ages fairly poorly.

At the moment, we get to learn in regards to the travails of RIMM/Blackberry with the complete good thing about hindsight. Certain, traders have no idea the longer term, however a lot of the time, we do not know about what’s going on within the current.

We’re incorrect about a variety of issues, but it surely’s greater than that: Our over-confidence can now and again border on conceitedness. Research present we are inclined to consider these exhibiting this extra confidence greater than we should always. This serves us very poorly as traders.

Beforehand:
“Irrespective of how you narrow it, you’ve obtained to personal Cisco” -2000 (Could 15, 2023)

Can Anybody Catch Nokia? (October 26, 2022)

Why the Apple Retailer Will Fail (Could 20, 2021)

No one Is aware of Nuthin’ (Could 5, 2016)

No one Is aware of Something

Predictions and Forecasts

Supply:
Neglect the iPhone: BlackBerry remains to be the one to beat
By Jon Fortt
Fortune August 24, 2007

Fortune excerpt:

To wit: ABI Analysis says RIM captured 44 p.c of the North American smartphone market this spring, up from 33 p.c a yr in the past. The features got here on the expense of Palm (PALM), which slid from 33 p.c to 24 p.c.

Why the features for RIM? Credit score should go to the BlackBerry Pearl, the corporate’s sleekly designed effort to seize the patron market’s consideration. RIM’s 44 p.c share will likely be a steep hill for any competitor to climb.

Don’t get me incorrect, Apple is certain to realize smartphone share shortly, and its iPhone is so new that it didn’t even register within the spring numbers. However Apple’s multi-year unique settlement with AT&T (T) will preserve it from attaining essentially the most explosive development. In the meantime, RIM appears to be slowly determining easy methods to enchantment to shoppers whereas providing telephones via all of the carriers, together with Verizon Wi-fi (VZ), Dash (S) and T-Cell (DT).

Extra vital, although, RIM additionally has taken beneficial floor within the enterprise.

I used to be reminded of that reality just lately throughout a gathering at Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), the place I obtained a have a look at some new gadgets the corporate will announce in a few weeks. HP challenges RIM for enterprise clients, the executives and salespeople who want to remain related to the workplace whereas they’re out and about. However RIM is clearly the chief on this area, and my hunch is that it is going to be powerful for anybody – even a full-service juggernaut like HP – to steal away its clients.

That’s as a result of RIM sells extra than simply the BlackBerry machine – it additionally sells the BlackBerry Enterprise Server, the backend software program that retains employees related to e-mail and different enterprise functions. This software program sits on prime of core packages like Microsoft (MSFT) Trade and IBM (IBM) Lotus Domino, making them out there on the go.

If RIM can preserve these clients glad, it can take a variety of effort and time for rivals like HP, Apple and Nokia to pry them away.

–Fortune, August 24, 2007

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