23rd June 2024

A fast follow-up to final month’s notice on slipping coincident indicators:

December was comparatively steady in comparison with the slide in November. Over the three prior months, “the indexes elevated in 25 states, decreased in 22 states, and remained steady in three, for a three-month diffusion index of 6.” That is just one state worse on the lower, and drop on the index from eight to six.

The one-month measure noticed a notable enchancment: In December, Indexes elevated in 26 states, decreased in 16 states, and remained steady in eight, for a one-month diffusion index of 20. That’s a marked enchancment over November 2023, the place the indexes elevated in 18 states, decreased in 21 states, and remained steady in 11, for a one-month diffusion index of -6.

Visually, you’ll be able to see the advance as extra green-blue and fewer yellow-orange:

The prior slide instructed a March fee minimize; this enchancment now implies extra of a 50/50 probability of the Fed appearing in both March or Might.

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Notice: The following launch isn’t till March 27, 2024, which might be for January coincident indexes. The February coincident indexes might be launched the next week, on April 3rd.

Supply:
State Coincident Indexes December 2023
The Federal Reserve Financial institution of Philadelphia, January 26, 2023

Beforehand:
State Coincident Indicators Slipping (January 2, 2024)

State Coincident Indicators: November 2022 (January 4, 2023)

Indicators of Softening (July 29, 2022)

Why Recessions Matter to Traders (July 11, 2022)

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