30th May 2024

@TBPInvictus right here:

Again in December 2022, I hypothesized that Elon Musk’s antics and his newfound need to personal the Libs have been going to destroy Tesla’s attraction to lots of his most necessary consumers

The newest information confirms these sentiments have been on level.

I checked out 2020 voting information and TSLA registrations in counties all through the state of New York, and theorized as follows:

Watching Musk’s ongoing antics, it has grow to be very clear to me that his actions usually are not solely destroying Twitter, however the collateral injury is taking Tesla down with it – a veritable twofer of ineptitude and rake-stepping. […]

My thesis is that in Musk’s newfound need to personal the Libs, he’s alienating the very individuals who have overwhelmingly been consumers of his EVs.

Contemplate who the everyday Tesla purchaser has been over the last decade earlier than he started to personal the Libs: You’ll describe them as individuals who don’t suppose world warming is a hoax; they’re early adopters, keen to pay extra for an EV versus an ICE automotive. Nearly as good as Tesla’s supercharging community is, it’s nowhere close to the infrastructure buildout of gasoline autos, it may nonetheless be inconvenient on 300+ mile journeys; though to be truthful, ICE infrastructure has had a century head begin. These of us need to go away a greater world to their youngsters; they’re realists concerning the risks introduced by local weather change, and so they suppose people could make a distinction by way of their private selections. Oh, and so they consider in science.

It isn’t that this group is solely Democrats, however draw a Venn diagram with the parents I described above and Dems, and the overlap is critical.

Now comes the Wall St. Journal with the headline: Elon Musk Misplaced Democrats on Tesla When He Wanted Them Most

The proportion of Democrats shopping for Tesla autos fell by greater than 60%, in line with automotive consumers surveyed in October and November by researcher Strategic Imaginative and prescient. 

I’m not one who’s usually inclined to take a victory lap, however this one feels prefer it was so apparent to see coming by bringing collectively information from very disparate sources and nailed the eventual consequence.

In case your politics places you on the other facet of the NYT/Paul Krugman, how do you reconcile that now Murdoch’s WSJ has come to simply accept this relaity as properly…?

BR provides: What makes this so perplexing is what an unforced error this has been. Musk moved your entire auto trade in the direction of electrical, he had amassed monumental goodwill and had a built-in buyer base that was very loyal. All he needed to do was not screw it up, which — apparently — was a bridge too far.

At its peak, TSLA was value $1.29 trillion; right this moment, it’s $448.9 billion:

That could be a 65% lower in market cap + value:

In fact, there’s far more competitors right this moment, and Tesla’s designs are getting previous, and looking out a bit stale. Their large decade-long software program benefit is now in all probability someplace within the 2 -Four 12 months vary.

Not less than it’ll make for a captivating HBS case research sooner or later…

Elon Musk Misplaced Democrats on Tesla When He Wanted Them Most
Tim Higgins
WSJ, April 20, 2024

Methods to Destroy a Model, Musk Fashion
Paul Krugman
NYT, Dec. 30, 2022

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