23rd July 2024

@TBPInvictus right here

A couple of days in the past, Barry and I detailed how unscrupulous unhealthy actors had taken Not Seasonally Adjusted knowledge to falsely declare that California’s new $20/hour minimal wage had price the state virtually 10,000 quick-serve restaurant (QSR) jobs.

I wrote:

It seems to me that the Journal received that quantity from BLS. Nevertheless, BLS solely gives the collection with out seasonal adjustment; this makes a really significant distinction.

Barry added:

There are two unhealthy gamers right here: The partisans who know they’re abusing the information, and the naive journos being taken benefit of whose editors are too innumerate to know even primary modeling points like seasonal changes.

Finest practices when utilizing knowledge with a excessive diploma of seasonality is to make use of 12 months-over-12 months foundation (NSA) on your comparability. This removes the seasonality issue.

Pulitzer Prize profitable LA Occasions columnist Michael Hiltzik picked up on the difficulty, and did a masterful job explaining the complexities in layman’s phrases. His headline is traditional:

The fast-food business claims the California minimal wage regulation is costing jobs. Its numbers are faux.

Theheart of the column is the acknowledgment and recantation from one of many key sources of the misinformation, Professor Lee Ohanian. Ohanian wrote to Hiltzik:

Ohanian acknowledged by e mail that “if the information are usually not seasonally adjusted, then no conclusions may be drawn from these knowledge relating to AB 1228,” the minimal wage regulation.

Barry provides:

Two issues so as to add to this dialogue:

It’s one more reminder that buyers should at all times be on guard for nonsensical claims from partisans who’ve zero concern on your portfolio. They’re enjoying a unique sport, and you’re collateral injury.

And second, at all times recall what Joan Robinson taught us so way back:

“The aim of finding out economics is to not purchase a set of ready-made solutions to financial questions, however to discover ways to keep away from being deceived by economists.”

The fast-food business claims the California minimal wage regulation is costing jobs. Its numbers are faux.
by Michael Hiltzik
L.A. Occasions, June 12, 2024

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